Galway West constituency profile: Can Gráinne Seoige inherit vote from retiring poll-topper Éamon Ó Cuív?

Outgoing TDs: Catherine Connolly (Ind), Mairéad Farrell (SF), Noel Grealish (Ind), Hildegarde Naughton (FG), Éamon Ó Cuív (FF)
Who are the candidates running in the Galway West constituency? Hildegarde Naughton (FG), Pauline O’Reilly (GP), Seán Kyne (FG); Gráinne Seoige (FF); Noel Grealish (Ind), John Connolly (FF); Noel Thomas (Ind Ire); Mairéad Farrell (SF); Maisie McMaster (PBP); Pádraig Lenihan (Aon); Doran McMahon (IFP); AJ Cahill (TIP), Mike Cubbard (Ind)
The biggest change here is that consistent poll-topper Éamon Ó Cuív is retiring after 32 years as a TD. Fianna Fáil is running two candidates, the established Galway City councillor John Connolly and Gráinne Seoige. The TV presenter is one of two celebrity candidates running for the party, along with Alison Comyn in Co Louth.
A native of An Spidéal and a native Irish speaker, she will be hoping to inherit a good part of Ó Cuív’s substantial Connemara vote. But Connolly is also a fluent speaker form Barna and is well got in the Gaeltacht.
At present, there are two Independents, one Fianna Fáil, one Fine Gael and one Sinn Féin TD. The ultra local Noel Grealish from Carnmore has held a seat for 22 years. The other Independent, Catherine Connolly, has a high national profile and is seen as the candidate of the political space once held by Michael D Higgins.
Government chief whip Hildegarde Naughton and Senator Seán Kyne were close in votes last time – Kyne might be hoping that some of the Ó Cuív votes in north Connemara will go to him. Sinn Féin’s Mairéad Farrell finished third in 2020 but may face a bigger battle this time around, depending on how well Sinn Féin performs in the run-up to polling day. If there are vulnerabilities it would be one of the Independent seats or Sinn Féin, presenting a marginal chance to Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil to take a second seat.
The constituency had a portion of Mayo – including Shrule, Cong, Kilmaine and the Neale – but those places were reassigned to Mayo in the recent constituency changes. So, the constituency is now divided into three parts: Galway City; Connemara; and – to the east of Loch Corrib – Annaghdown, Claregalway and Oranmore. Three of the TDs in 2020 were based in Galway City, with one to the east of the city and one in Connemara.
Possible outcome: 1 FF, 1 FG, 2 Ind, 1 SF